Supply Elasticity Score (SES)

How hard it is for supply to respond when demand rises. SES runs from 0 to 100: the higher the score, the less new supply a price rise can bring on, and the longer a shortage can last.

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Measure

What it measures

A price rise only eases a shortage if it brings on more supply. For some minerals that happens within a year or two; for others, new mines take a decade, refining capacity sits in one place, nothing can substitute for the mineral in its end uses and little comes back from recycling. SES scores those obstacles the same way for every mineral, so you can compare how long a supply squeeze could last.

It is a structural score: it changes when the supply side changes, through new capacity, a substitute or a recycling route, rather than with the price.

Factors

The five factors

Each factor is scored 0–100, and SES is their average. In the Terminal, they are the five tiles at the top of every mineral page.
Time to add supply
How long it takes to bring new mine supply online.In years; 12 or more scores 100
Capital intensity
How much capital it takes to build new supply capacity.Rated 1–5 → 0–100
Processing difficulty
How hard it is to expand the processing and refining capacity needed to increase supply.Rated 1–5 → 0–100
Substitution difficulty
How hard it is to replace this mineral in its end uses.Rated 1–5 → 0–100
Recycling difficulty
How little supply can be recovered through recycling.Rated 1–5 → 0–100
Scale

Reading the score

Five bands of 20 points each, shown in the Terminal as the dots on every card on the Critical Minerals page and used by its SES filter.
  1. Very inelastic80–100
  2. Inelastic60–80
  3. Moderate40–60
  4. Elastic20–40
  5. Very elastic0–20

SES also feeds the company scores: it is part of CMCS, Mineral exposure (MES) and Supply leverage (SLS), so a company’s output in a mineral whose supply is hard to expand counts for more than the same output in one whose supply responds easily.

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Most and least elastic

The latest readings, in the Stockatomics Terminal.

Least and most elastic minerals

Every mineral’s SES, from the hardest supply to expand to the easiest.

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The five factors, mineral by mineral

Each mineral’s time to add supply, capital, processing, substitution and recycling scores.

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FAQ

Supply Elasticity (SES) FAQ

What is the Supply Elasticity Score (SES)?

How hard it is for a critical mineral’s supply to respond when demand rises. SES runs from 0 to 100: the higher the score, the less new supply a price rise can bring on, and the longer a shortage can last.

How is SES calculated?

SES is the average of five factors, each scored 0–100: time to add supply, capital intensity, processing difficulty, substitution difficulty and recycling difficulty.

Does SES change with the price?

No. It is a structural score: it changes when the supply side changes, through new capacity, a substitute or a recycling route, rather than with the price.

Research

More research

The full method is set out in our research paper.

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